The hottest glass market is calm and weakening, wa

The glass market is calm and weakening, waiting for time to change space

important macro news

news from the eurozone is mixed, and the debt crisis still gives EU countries a headache. China's industrial data is good, but the GDP data is not awesome. Various data from the United States show that the market has sufficient inflation momentum

278 banks in the euro zone will participate in the repayment of the first round of ltro (long-term refinancing operation) loans of 137.2 billion euros. The UK economy contracted by 0.3% in the fourth quarter and was on the verge of a "triple dip recession"

China's GDP grew by 7.8% in 2012, the lowest growth in 13 years. The growth slowed down for seven consecutive quarters. In December, the profits of Industrial Enterprises above designated size increased by 17.3% year-on-year, the second highest in 2012

the Federal Reserve announced for the first time that the size of its balance sheet exceeded $3trillion, and corporate earnings were positive. The S & P 500 hit an 11 month high in the euro, the longest rise in eight years

glass index analysis

on the 25th, the "China glass composite index" fell 0.93 points compared with the previous day, "China glass price index" Rose 0.34 points, "China glass market confidence index" fell 3.28 points. The indices continued to weaken

glass spot situation

the year is approaching, the "rigid demand period" of the spot market is gradually passing, and the effective demand is insufficient, the long-term positive effect is gradually fading, and in the off-season, enterprises often use disguised promotional methods. The strong upward trend of the South China market has stabilized and weakened; East and central China are calm without bright spots; The northeast and northwest regions are still in the "hibernation period", and the market shows no signs of improvement

glass demand

the latest data shows that in 2012, the development speed of the real estate market and the area of land purchase fell significantly compared with the previous year. Although the sales area and sales of commercial housing were lower than that of the previous year, they continued to improve throughout the year, rising all the way, showing a trend of not being light in the off-season. In 2012, the national real estate development investment was 7180.4 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 16.2% over the previous year (the actual increase after deducting price factors was 14.9%), and the growth rate fell by 0.5 percentage points over the month and 11.9 percentage points over 2011. Among them, the residential investment was 4937.4 billion yuan, an increase of 11.4%, and the growth rate fell 0.5 percentage points from the month, accounting for 68.8% of the real estate development investment. In January, 2013, the statistics of several institutions showed that the trading volume of the commercial housing market was not light at the beginning of the year, and the trading volume remained at a high level driven by the supply at the end of last year. Among them, the transaction of pure commercial housing in the middle and early January reached the highest level in the same period since 2009. To sum up, the real estate market has maintained a strong recovery momentum in the short term. In the medium and long term, we should pay attention to the impact of national industrial policy guidance on the real estate market

although all lagging indicators of the real estate market show positive glass demand, after all, the new year is approaching, and real estate construction has also entered the inventory digestion period, further large-scale demand is difficult to release in the short term. On the other hand, urbanization and other expected positive effects have not shown their power for a long time, and the phenomenon of far water puzzled near thirst still exists. The short-term demand for glass turned from slightly stronger to weaker, and the long-term demand remained at the expected level, and the substantive level failed to get out of the historical downturn. In the short term, considering the callback demand brought by the weakening seasonal demand, we should pay attention to the game between the real estate regulation policy and the contradiction between land supply and demand in the medium and long term, and be optimistic about the seasonal recovery of glass demand

glass futures

on the 25th, the contract in May and September continued to fluctuate, and the trend was in line with the early assessment of the day that "the strategic sharp decline was postponed". In May, the contract fell by 4 yuan/ton to close at 1468 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was halved from the previous day to ensure safety, with an increase of -51388 hands. In September, the contract rose 1 yuan/ton to close at 1546 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was flat compared with the previous day, such as Belleville springs, shrapnel, etc., with an increase of -806 hands. The two contracts continued to fluctuate, and the expectation of the time of sharp decline in the short term was postponed with the macro positive. Pay attention to the strength of the dull weakening of the spot market, and properly evaluate whether the futures fell significantly before the year

summary

on the 25th, the real estate market data in 2012 was lower than that of the previous year, but continued to improve during the year. Data in January this year showed that the housing market continued to recover. In the short term, affected by the end of the construction period and the digestion of inventory by real estate enterprises, the effective demand for glass is slightly insufficient, and the glass market is also calm and weakening. In the medium and long term, the positive strength of paying attention to industrial policies and macro policies determines the time point of bullish. The foreign economy is mixed, and the domestic economy reports good news but not bad news. In the short term, we can't look too much at it. 4. After the founding meeting, the multi glass industry should pay attention to the impact of spot on the futures market. The glass industry is waiting to trade time for space in the contradiction of good macro medium-term and bad short-term demand for glass

maintain the view: the situation of oversupply of glass fundamentals has not fundamentally changed, and the seasonal off-season has not completely passed. Whether the real demand for glass is rapidly warming determines when the futures will rise. Pay attention to medium-term short opportunities. Investors can directly search "Zhao Fei of Wanda futures" in Baidu to get contact information, exchange and consult about investment opportunities of glass futures

28 day operation suggestions

day speculators who trade frequently rush high and short short, strictly 1. The power of general Electromechanical is not greater than "#" T9 stop loss, and the position is 20%; Large funds try to short basis arbitrage; Production enterprises consider short position hedging according to their own cost situation

Author: Zhao Fei (Wanda futures Xi'an Business Department)

the content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk

China glass () Department