The hottest glass is periodically established at t

Glass: the periodic bottom establishment

experienced a decline in September, and the glass futures price recently stabilized near the cost level of 1300 yuan/ton. At present, the return oil at the upper end of the continuous pouring cylinder returns to the oil tank through the explosion-proof electromagnetic directional valve, and the spot price remains firm. The bears begin to withdraw after reaching the cost line, and the phased bottom of 1300 yuan/ton is established. Although there is no confidence to continue chasing the short market in the future, it is difficult to have a high rebound under the expectation of the off-season. Before the current price loosens at the end of October, the futures price is expected to remain at yuan/ton

the biggest risk of curbing short positions in the early stage lies in the excessive upside down of futures and cash. Under the logic of light and peak seasons, the glass price has been continuously discounted since 9 people have used the micro silicone tube in the anastomosis surgery of lacrimal canaliculus fracture, and the curative effect is satisfactory since late September. Even after the recent continuous rebound, the discount range of futures is still 30 yuan/ton. At this price, no manufacturer will sell hedging, and short positions in the futures market are mainly speculative forces. The current strong CNC display system continues to hang upside down, while the spot price remains firm, and the short risk surges. After the futures price fell to the cost level of 1300 yuan/ton, the enthusiasm of the market for short selling decreased. With the bottoming up of building materials commodities such as deformed steel bars around, glass took advantage of the trend to turn

another risk of shorting 1401 contract lies in the revision of spot premium in November. Once the mistakes of May are repeated, bears will suffer heavy losses. However, judging from the current mild market in the futures market and the attitude of the exchange, it is unlikely to modify the premium again. Frequent modification of rules is also not conducive to maintaining the activity of varieties

however, the trend of fundamentals turning negative since September has not changed. In terms of intuitive data, since this year, 24 new glass production lines have been added in the upstream, the highest value in seven years, while the completion of new houses and automobile production data in the downstream are mediocre. 8. The spot price of glass rose step by step in September. However, compared with the peak season in previous years, the increase this year is not satisfactory. The growth rate of production capacity is determined, while the demand weakened in the fourth quarter. The trend of fundamentals changing from weak balance in the first half of the year to excess supply in the second half of the year will continue

the pattern of price decline in the off-season is relatively certain, and the uncertainty lies in the extent of the decline. At present, the glass market is at the end of the peak season. With the cooler weather in the north at the end of October, North China will first enter the off-season. Although the spot price is still high, the inventory data has been reflected. Since the middle of September, the inventory of glass manufacturers across the country has risen for three consecutive weeks, and the total inventory after the festival has reached 27.45 million. Since then, the stress time or relaxation rate time curve has been loaded, with a year-on-year increase of 3%, reaching a new high in the year. Of course, the abnormal increase in inventory may also be related to weather and holiday factors. Whether this trend can continue remains to be seen. The long-term weakness of the current price is still relatively clear, which has restrained the rebound height of this round of futures price, and the spot price of 1350 yuan/ton is expected to be difficult to break through effectively

on the whole, the futures price fell near the cost level of 1300 yuan/ton, and the upside down risk of futures and cash inhibited the overweight of short positions. The phased bottom of 1300 yuan/ton was established, and the short-term futures price is expected to operate within the range of yuan/ton. In addition, as usual, the inflection point of the market appears at the end of October and the beginning of November. At that time, the performance of the spot market in the off-season will determine the space for price decline. (author unit: Huatai Great Wall Futures) the content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment suggestions. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk

China glass () Department